Climate change would lead to water scarcity which would lead to first nuclear war of 21st century

written by Shayan Khan

Pakistan and India are in a region of not only high population, but one of high population growth – a region where both economies rely heavily on rain fed crop land. With the two countries going to war three times in the last sixty years and found ever-ready to start a fourth one, availability of water to both nations is of utmost important for the stability of the entire region.

In recent weeks, the importance of availability of water was brushed aside with the overhyped claims that IPCC report was wrong to conclude that Himalayan Glaciers would disappear in few decades. Under the noise of “crying foul” the most important aspect of regular availability of water to the region now seems to be lost. Currently, the broad consensus is that the glaciers themselves are indeed retreating, although the rate of the recession may be debatable. However, there are other climate-influenced factors that affect river flows, such as changes in precipitation, snowfall and regional temperature.

“There has been too much focus on glaciers whereas there are other factors like precipitation and snowfall that affect the levels of waters in rivers downstream from the eastern Himalayas,” says Mats Eriksson, a senior hydrologist with the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which has carried out several studies on the glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas.

The Himalayan water system can be divided into two, Eastern and Western, based on the sources for river flow resources. Eastern system feeds India, Bangladesh, while Western System feeds India and Pakistan.

Eastern Himalayas

Eastern Himalayas feed major rivers like the Ganges and the Bramhaputra, as well as their tributaries. These are vital lifelines for billions of people in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Tibet.

A recent study for the World Bank has shown that the volume of water resulting from glacial melt in Nepal makes up less than 5% of the flows of rivers leaving the country and contributing to the Ganges downstream.

“That is, about 95% or more of the river flow is the result of rain and melting seasonal snow,” said report co-author Richard Armstrong, a glaciologist from the University of Colorado at Boulder, US.
If that is true, rivers downstream of the eastern Himalayas will hardly be affected, even if the glaciers recede or disappear. Additionally other contributing factors to the rivers’ flow, such as precipitation and snowfall will also change with the changing climate leading to rise or fall of rivers’ levels – and by how much and when – are the questions still waiting to be answered.
“We are seeing some changes in the monsoon,” Dr Eriksson said of the seasonal precipitation system that shapes the climate in this part of the region.

“Last year, for example, the monsoon arrived one month late in Nepal and then some places saw 80mm of water in a day during the delayed rainy season.

“But there has been no consistent measurement of precipitation and temperature and there is a lack of proper studies.”

Some scientists believe absorption of solar radiation by aerosols (dust particles and carbon soot) can heat the atmosphere and accelerate regional impacts of global warming, which in turn affect water resources.

William Lau, who heads the atmospheric sciences branch at Nasa’s Goddard Flight Center, carried out a study in India last year and found that, as a result of aerosols, regional temperature was rising much faster than expected. And that, he said, could influence the monsoon systems, resulting in less water availability in the region.

Dr Richard Armstrong on the other hand said that a warming climate could also mean a stronger monsoon bringing more precipitation that could increase stream flows.

“Having said that, it should be noted that future precipitation patterns predicted by climate models are highly variable and there is a very little regional agreement among the models,” he said.

Western Himalayas

High variability is also an issue with the flow of rivers in the western Himalayas that do not fall within the monsoon regime.

There is no clear-cut signal as there is a large variation between average annual flows,” said Arshad Muhammad Khan, a physicist who heads the Global Change Impact Studies Centre in Pakistan.
“For example, in the Indus River, the maximum flow is twice of that of the minimum.”

Unlike the Ganges, rivers like the Indus in the western part of the Himalayas are heavily dependent on glaciers, as this region does not get monsoon rains.

But even here, glacial status is not reported to be uniform.  Some scientists say increasing temperature has meant that glaciers don’t get enough snowfall during winter and therefore river flow during summer is dwindling.

“We have seen the decline in the flow of the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers,” says Professor Mohammad Sultan Bhat of Kashmir University, who has conducted field studies with India’s flood and irrigation department.

“We have recorded a decrease of 40% in the flow of Jhelum’s tributary river… that is fed by the receding Kolahi glacier.”

But, Kenneth Hewitt, a glaciologist from Canada who has been doing field studies in Pakistan’s Karakoram mountains, told BBC News last October that he had seen at least half a dozen glaciers there advancing since he saw them five years ago.

With glaciers offering such complex pictures, combined with precipitation and temperature patterns becoming increasingly complicated, the region’s river systems that depend on all these factors cannot be simpler.

Water Sharing between India and Pakistan

Under the treaty signed in 1960, Pakistan and India share five tributaries of the Indus River, namely, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. The agreement grants Pakistan exclusive rights over waters from the Indus and its westward-flowing tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab, while the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers were allocated for India’s use.

However, if any one of the two finds itself short of the vital necessarily the transboundary water sharing between India and Pakistan will become an extremely difficult proposition. Unless both countries take preventive measures, the two might find each other at loggerheads and consequently arms pointed for access to this soon-to-be ultimate precious resource.

Water Dispute – the New Reason for Indo-Pak War

All three wars between the two brith-rivals have been over land disputes. However, if the changes in water availability continue, land would take the second priority, getting superseded by water. Even the anti-war liberals would find themselves out of choices and audience in such a scenario. Unless immediate measures are taken to mitigate the future water scarcity, the world might find two heavily armed, nuclear neighbour going at each other’s throats.

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